European airports have said jet fuel shortages could hit the summer holiday season if oil supplies do not start to flow through the strait of Hormuz within the next three weeks.
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe wrote to Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the EU transport commissioner, saying the bloc is three weeks away from shortages.
The warning will raise concerns of a risk of flight or holiday cancellations if the US and Israel’s war on Iran continues. Oil prices have soared since the start of March after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for exports from the Gulf, in retaliation.
Donald Trump this week announced a ceasefire, but Brent crude oil prices remained at about $96 per barrel on Friday amid concerns over whether it would hold. Before the war, oil traded at about $72.
“If the passage through the strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” the letter said.
Jet fuel prices have soared since the end of February after the attacks on Iran ordered by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister. Global jet fuel prices at the end of last week had more than doubled compared with last year to $1,650 per tonne, according to figures tracked by Iata, an airline lobby group.
The worst hit region has been Asia, with prices up 163% year-on-year. However, prices in Europe were still up by 138%, amid a global scramble to secure fuel.
Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of Europe’s largest airline, Ryanair, this week said that the UK, not an EU member, was the most vulnerable country in Europe to potential jet fuel shortages because of its reliance on Kuwait.
The last cargo of European jet fuel to pass through the strait of Hormuz before the war began is due to arrive in Copenhagen tomorrow, after the same tanker delivered a partial cargo to Rotterdam on Monday, according to shipping data provider Vortexa.
The final tanker of Gulf jet fuel destined for the UK arrived in Kent on the Maetiga vessel from Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
Europe has typically sourced more than 60% of its jet fuel from Gulf refineries, of which more than 40% was shipped through the strait of Hormuz. Iran’s chokehold on the vital trade strait has forced European buyers to compete with Asia for fresh cargoes from other parts of the world as the last Gulf deliveries have trickled in.
The global market for jet fuel has been particularly exposed to the Gulf disruption because there are fewer alternative routes for exports, according to Australian investment bank Macquarie. While some crude exports have been able to bypass the strait via pipelines, jet fuel does not have these options available.
In the event that trade flows resume, the bank expects the market for refined oil products, such as fuels, to take at least two to three months longer than crude markets to normalise.
Airlines across the world have already started cutting flights and raising fares in response to the higher fuel prices.
The fare hikes will feed through into higher inflation, but outright shortages of jet fuel could cause greater economic damage if they force people and businesses to abandon travel or hold off on exports.
ACI warned of “increasing concerns of the airport industry over the availability of jet fuel as well as the need for proactive EU monitoring and action”, with supplies further being hit by “the impact of military activity on demand”.
The problems could become particularly acute at the start of the peak summer season “when air travel enables the whole tourism ecosystem upon which many economies rely”, ACI said in the letter, first reported by the Financial Times.
Willie Walsh, Iata’s director general, said that even if the strait of Hormuz were to remain open, “it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be, given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East”.
Before the crisis, Iata had predicted 4.9% year-on-year growth in passenger traffic for 2026.
