The Chief Executive Officer of Dalex Finance, Joe Jackson, has warned that the cedi could come under renewed pressure unless critical leakages in the country’s export value chain are addressed.
Delivering a lecture at the Chartered Institute of Marketing Ghana (CIMG) Evening with Joe Jackson in Accra, themed ‘Ananse stories about Ghana’s economy’, he challenged widely-held assumptions about the drivers of currency instability.
Mr. Jackson argued that the cedi’s persistent weakness is not primarily due to high import levels, as is often believed. Rather, he said, the core issue lies in the country’s inability to retain sufficient value from its exports.
He explained that although the country exports significant volumes, a substantial portion of earnings is lost through profit repatriation, debt servicing, service imports and limited local participation in key sectors. This, he noted, leaves less foreign exchange available to support the currency.
“We can export all we like, but so long as more than half is going what is left will not help us. If Ghana continues to retain less than half the value of its exports, then increasing export volumes alone will not strengthen the cedi. It may, in fact, leave it under even greater pressure,” he said.
Mr. Jackson acknowledged that the cedi has recently shown signs of recovery, strengthening from around GH¢15–GH¢17 to about GH¢11 against major currencies. However, he cautioned that these gains remain fragile and could easily be reversed if underlying structural issues are not addressed.
“The cedi has come down from the lofty heights of 15, maybe even 17, to now 11 and we are all excited. As surely as night follows day, if we do not fix this and we continue subscribing to that ‘Ananse story’, we will see a reversal of our gains,” he warned.
At the core of his lecture was the argument that Ghana’s economic challenges are not solely about policy choices, but also how the economy is interpreted.
“Ghana’s economic problem is not just policy; it is how we interpret the economy,” he stated.
He pushed back against the common view that weak exports or excessive imports are the principal causes of currency depreciation, noting that Ghana has often recorded trade surpluses — a situation that underscores a disconnect between trade performance and currency stability.
“The cedi problem is less about import appetite and more about weak domestic retention of export value,” he explained.
Mr. Jackson also challenged the long-standing assumption that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the primary engines of growth. While acknowledging their role in job creation, he argued that most SMEs operate at subsistence levels and lack the scale required to drive meaningful economic transformation.
“If launching SME programmes created growth, Ghana should be an economic superpower by now,” he remarked.
Drawing lessons from countries such as South Korea and Singapore, he emphasised that sustained economic growth is typically driven by a smaller number of strong, high-performing firms rather than a broad base of small businesses.
Economic ownership
He warned that without deliberate efforts to build and scale indigenous companies, Ghana risks remaining marginal in its own economy.
“Until Ghana builds companies that own, control and scale value, we will remain tenants in our own economy,” he cautioned.
Mr. Jackson called for a strategic shift toward developing national champions, increasing local participation in key industries, mobilising domestic capital and moving up the value chain.
He further stressed that misdiagnosing the problem leads to ineffective solutions. “We are solving the wrong problems,” he said.
The lecture attracted policymakers, business leaders and finance professionals, many of whom described it as a timely and necessary rethink of Ghana’s economic direction — underscoring a simple but urgent truth: it is not how much Ghana exports, but how much it retains that will determine the cedi’s future.
